OPEC sharply lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing heightened market uncertainty. [2]
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the group forecasts demand growth of 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. [8, 18] That is down from its previous forecast of 380,000 bpd. [8, 18]
Earlier, OPEC Secretary-General statements at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh pointed to a 2026 forecast of 400,000 bpd, down from 1.4 million bpd at the start of the year. [2]
The report forecasts China’s oil demand will contract by 60,000 bpd in 2026, reversing an earlier expectation of modest growth. [8] OPEC’s successive downward revisions signal a sharp slowdown in projected global oil consumption. [2]
The lower outlook adds to bearish sentiment for crude oil prices. It may weigh on exploration, production and services companies, which are heavily represented in ETFs such as VDE, XLE and OIH.