Europe enters winter with natural gas storage at its lowest seasonal level in over a decade. EU gas storage is currently 65% full as of early September. This inventory level remains well below the five-year average of 80%.
European utilities created this risk by intentionally delaying gas purchases. Energy buyers bet that the conflict involving Iran would end quickly and lower global prices.
Recent escalations have instead choked off liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark European gas prices have surged to their highest levels since early 2023. A persistent conflict threatens severe winter shortages and may force Europe into a global bidding war for limited LNG supplies.