Shares of SpaceX surged 4.5% to $154.15 on September 10, clawing back nearly all of the prior session's 3.86% decline, even as a second wave of previously restricted stock hit the open market. SpaceX Absorbs a 378-Million-Share Flood and Bounces Back — But Is the Lockup Overhang Really Priced In?
Shares snapped higher on September 10, climbing 4.5% to $154.15, as buyers stepped in to absorb a second tranche of newly unlocked stock — 59.1 million affiliate-held shares — just one day after 319 million restricted shares hit the market and dragged SPCX down 3.86% to $147.55. The speed of the rebound poses a critical question: is the selling pressure truly fading, or are investors underestimating the wall of supply still ahead?
• The September 9 Dump Was the Biggest Test Since August — and the Stock Survived. Up to 1.55 billion shares have now unlocked across three releases, most recently the Day-90 tranche on September 9 — lifting the free float to roughly 16% of the approximately 13.4 billion shares outstanding . That the stock recovered its losses within a single session suggests institutional buyers — likely thematic ETFs and index-tracking funds — are providing a bid beneath the surface. Still, a small float amplifies volatility: with little supply available, even ordinary demand can move the price a lot .
• More Supply Is Coming, and Soon. The next lockup dates are September 24, October 9, October 24, and December 8, 2026 . By Halloween, publicly available shares are estimated to comprise roughly one-third of the entire company . That means the float could roughly double again within weeks. Elon Musk's approximately 6.4 billion-share block unlocks on June 12, 2027 — the single largest wave of supply .
• The Valuation Leaves Little Room for Error. SPCX carries a market cap of roughly $2 trillion on trailing revenue of just $23 billion, a gross margin of 51.9%, and a net margin of negative 35.7% . Operations generated $6.8 billion in cash last year, but capital expenditures were three times larger at $20.7 billion, producing roughly negative $14 billion in free cash flow . The company's valuation "implies investors will have to wait decades for earnings to grow into SpaceX's multiples" .
• Wall Street Still Sees Upside — on Paper. The average 12-month analyst price target sits at $214.57, with 29 buy ratings against just 2 sells . But analyst conviction collides with a mechanical reality: the stock is undergoing "a multi-month supply correction," and its early price spikes "were primarily a reflection of structural share scarcity, rather than a stable, long-term market valuation" .
Today's bounce is encouraging for bulls, but the lockup calendar is barely half-finished. The real test comes when one-third of all shares trade freely — and the scarcity premium that built this rally is gone.