Morningstar analyst David Swartz lowered Nike’s economic moat rating to narrow from wide, citing increased competition from brands such as Hoka and On Holding. Nike’s U.S. footwear market share fell from 40% in 2016 to 30% in 2025. The company’s focus on direct-to-consumer sales has also strained relationships with some wholesalers. Despite the challenges and a lower fair value estimate, Swartz said Nike shares remain undervalued.
Nike is implementing a restructuring plan intended to save $2.5 billion over the next four years through measures including job cuts and streamlined management. Zacks Research lowered its estimate for Nike’s Q1 2028 earnings per share.
Analyst sentiment on Wall Street remains mixed, with about 26% rating the stock a Buy. Concerns include declining sales, particularly in China.