ASML's $400 Million Machines Just Locked In All Three Chip Giants — But Can Its Stock Keep Climbing at These Prices?

Shares of ASML surged 3.7% to $1,778.13 after the world's three largest chipmakers — Samsung, TSMC, and Intel — committed to using the company's newest ultra-advanced chipmaking machines for future production. The announcements effectively guarantee demand for equipment that no other company on Earth can build, but with the stock already up 120% over the past year, the question is how much of this future is already baked in.

All Three Customers Are Now Locked In, But on Very Different Timelines. Samsung plans to use the new machines in 2028 for memory chip manufacturing, while TSMC expects to adopt them for advanced chips starting in 2030.

Intel is already using the technology in production, with more than one million wafers processed. That staggered adoption means ASML's revenue boost from these commitments will arrive in waves — not all at once. Each machine costs roughly $400 million , and they sell for two to three times the price of the prior generation, meaning faster adoption directly lifts ASML's average selling price and profit margins.

The Bigger Story: A Photomask Overhaul Could Multiply Output. The companies are also shifting to larger photomasks — the stencils used to print chip patterns — that could boost factory output by 40%.

ASML, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel agreed to switch from 6-inch to 12-inch masks , a move that reduces complexity and cost at scale. If it works, it makes the expensive machines far more economical, accelerating orders.

ASML Already Raised Its Outlook, and the Numbers Are Huge. ASML lifted its full-year 2026 sales guidance to €43–€45 billion , and the company targets €44–€60 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Management is also aiming for 56–60% gross margins by 2030, up from 52.8% in 2025. Today's commitments reinforce those targets, but don't change them yet.

Valuation Is the Elephant in the Room. ASML trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 59.8 times — meaning investors are paying nearly 60 dollars for every dollar of current earnings. Barclays noted the commitments "should provide more visibility on adoption which has been a key debate," but China export restrictions are simultaneously cutting one of its biggest revenue streams from 33% of 2025 sales to roughly 20% in 2026. ASML has no competitor and now has every major customer signed up — but at this price, perfection is already expected.