Shares of American Airlines surged +6.4% to $11.77 in pre-market trading Monday after Bloomberg reported that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has floated a possible combination with American Airlines, pitching the idea to senior government officials — including, per Reuters, in a meeting with President Donald Trump in late February . The move would reshape commercial aviation, but the gap between a CEO's trial balloon and a closed deal is enormous.
Two Airlines That Together Carry a Third of U.S. Passengers
United and American are among the top four U.S. carriers, together controlling more than a third of the market.
They were already the world's two largest airlines by available capacity in 2025, according to OAG data.
The two also have the largest fleets among U.S. airlines with more than 1,000 aircraft each. A combined entity would dwarf Delta and Southwest, fundamentally tilting pricing power in domestic skies.
Washington Sounds Open — With a Big Catch
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told CNBC, "President Trump, he loves to see big deals happen," adding, "Is there room for some mergers in the aviation industry? Yeah, I think there is." But he also warned that merging airlines would have to "peel off" some assets because the U.S. doesn't want one carrier with too much market share.
U.S. airline mergers must be approved by both the Transportation Department and the Department of Justice — and JetBlue's deal to acquire Spirit Airlines was blocked on antitrust grounds in 2024.
American's Balance Sheet Makes It a Cheap but Risky Target
American Airlines has a market cap of just $7.42 billion , compared to United's approximately $30.91 billion. But American carries about $25 billion in long-term debt, more than its larger rivals, leaving it with less financial flexibility.
The company generated $54.6 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, but operating margins remain thin at just 3.1%. United would be buying revenue scale saddled with massive liabilities.
No Formal Deal Yet — Just a CEO Testing the Waters
It's unclear if any overtures have been made or if an actual process is underway to explore a deal.
Kirby previously served as American's president from 2013 to 2016 , giving him intimate knowledge of the target. He said last month that a prolonged cost shock could create opportunities for stronger airlines to gain share as weaker rivals struggle — a signal that rising jet fuel costs from the U.S.-Iran conflict may be accelerating his thinking. With AAL set to report Q1 results on April 23 , investors should expect extreme volatility as merger speculation collides with operating reality.