Morningstar increased fair value estimates for major oil companies by an average of 14%. The firm now expects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in 2026. Forecasts for 2027 sit at $76 per barrel.
Geopolitical tensions and supply shocks drive these upward revisions. Strengthening global refining margins also support higher valuations for integrated firms like Exxon Mobil. High crude prices continue to boost upstream profits and cash flow.
Morningstar maintains its long-term midcycle oil price assumption at $65 per barrel. The firm warns share prices may pull back if global conflicts resolve.