Shares of Vistra Corp. surged 6.4% in early trading on November 6 after the Texas-based power giant delivered third-quarter results that crushed year-ago numbers and signaled even bigger profits ahead. The question for investors: whether the company's aggressive bet on powering AI data centers can sustain this trajectory—or whether a recent selloff tied to Texas policy uncertainty has permanently repriced the stock.
Earnings Jumped 50%, Signaling the Data-Center Bet Is Paying Off
Vistra posted adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion for the quarter, more than 50% higher than the same period last year.
Revenue hit $6.35 billion, up from $4.97 billion a year earlier, while net income nearly doubled to $1.14 billion from $652 million. The growth stems from rising power prices, higher generation volumes, and the early payoff from acquisitions designed to serve round-the-clock electricity customers like data centers. Operating income rose to $1.71 billion from $1.04 billion.
The 2027 Outlook Is What Really Moved the Stock
Management raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $7.1–$7.5 billion, narrowing and lifting the midpoint from the prior $6.8–$7.6 billion range. More importantly, Vistra initiated 2027 guidance of $7.7–$8.5 billion in EBITDA and $4.3–$5.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow. That 2027 midpoint of $8.1 billion—well above the previously floated $7.4–$7.8 billion "opportunity" range—now includes contributions from the freshly closed $4.7 billion Cogentrix acquisition, which adds 5,500 megawatts of gas-fired capacity aimed at data-center demand.
$2.5 Billion in New Buyback Ammunition Shores Up the Floor
Vistra has now executed roughly $6.7 billion in share repurchases since November 2021, shrinking its share count by about 30%.
The board authorized an additional $1.5 billion in buybacks, bringing total remaining firepower to approximately $2.5 billion through year-end 2028. At today's depressed price— the stock sits near its 52-week low of $110.89, well below a peak of $196.80 —those repurchases carry significantly more per-share impact.
A Policy Cloud Still Hangs Over Valuation Despite the blowout quarter, analysts maintain an average price target of $204, roughly 81% above current levels. The gap reflects a sharp policy-driven selloff after Texas elected a governor who supports pausing new data-center development —a direct threat to Vistra's growth thesis. Management's near-total hedging—98% for 2027, 78% for 2028— insulates near-term earnings, but investors clearly want clarity on whether long-term power demand contracts survive any regulatory shift.