Shares surged as Viasat landed a $437.7 million U.S. Space Force contract to build jam-resistant satellites, extending a run that has now pushed the stock up 116% year-to-date. The award, shared with Intelsat General Communications, adds serious fuel to Viasat's defense backlog — but with the stock now trading far above every Wall Street price target, investors face a pointed question about how much good news is already baked in.
• The Pentagon Is Paying for Anti-Jam Satellites — and $150M Is Already Committed
The contract covers space vehicles for the Protected Tactical Satellite Communications-Global program, a constellation designed to keep troops connected even when adversaries are actively trying to jam them.
Work is expected to be completed by March 2029, with $150 million in fiscal year 2026 funds obligated at award. Critically, Pentagon budget documents also show plans for a second procurement round in 2028 involving four additional satellites , suggesting Viasat could be positioned for follow-on revenue well beyond this initial deal.
• Defense Is Now the Company's Growth Engine
Defense segment revenue hit $332 million in Q3, a 9% increase year-over-year, driven by tactical networking and cyber defense. That segment is outpacing Viasat's larger communications business, which grew just 1%. Management guided for mid-teens growth in Defense and Advanced Technologies revenue for fiscal 2026 , and this contract reinforces that trajectory. Q3 defense backlog reached $1.2 billion, up 27% year-over-year.
• The Stock Has Blown Past Every Analyst Target At $78.53, VSAT trades well above the average analyst price target of $48.00, with a high forecast of just $51.00.
Morningstar flags the stock at a 414% premium to its estimated fair value of $53.76.
Seven of nine analysts rate the stock a "buy," but those ratings were set when shares were half today's price. The gap between market price and analyst consensus is unusually wide.
• Heavy Debt Remains the Central Risk
Net debt stands at $5.06 billion, down from $5.59 billion, with the net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio — a measure of how many years of profits it would take to repay borrowings — improving to 3.25x from 3.7x. That is progress, but the balance sheet is still stretched for a company generating roughly $4.6 billion in annual revenue. Viasat reports Q4 results on May 28 , giving investors an imminent chance to gauge whether the defense pipeline and satellite launches are translating into sustainable cash flow — or just sentiment.