United Airlines shares fell after the International Air Transport Association (IATA) slashed its 2026 global profit forecast. The trade group now expects a collective net profit of $23 billion. This figure is nearly half of the previous 2026 forecast. It also represents a steep drop from the $45 billion profit estimated for 2025.
Soaring jet fuel prices and Middle East operational disruptions are driving the downgrade. IATA projects the industry fuel bill will surge by 40% in 2026. Total fuel spending is expected to reach $350 billion.
Industry net profit margins are forecast to drop to 2.0%. This is a decrease from the 4.2% margin projected for 2025. United Airlines has already lowered its own full-year profit forecast to address rising costs and fuel volatility.