Shares of Space Exploration Technologies vaulted to $126.06, up 10.1%, as traders rushed to position ahead of two colliding catalysts: the company's first-ever public earnings report and a massive lock-up expiration that could unleash hundreds of millions of insider-held shares onto the open market. SpaceX Soars 10% Into Its First Earnings and a 911-Million-Share Unlock — Is the Rally a Trap or a Floor?
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies surged 10.1% to $126.06 as traders piled in ahead of a twin catalyst: the company's debut quarterly report and a lock-up expiration releasing a wall of insider stock. The move marks a sharp reversal for a stock that hit an all-time low of $107.01 just days ago — but whether the bounce holds depends on what comes next.
A Revenue Beat That Didn't Stop a Sell-Off
SpaceX grew revenue 92% to $7.8 billion in Q2, blowing past Wall Street's consensus estimate of roughly $6.9 billion.
The company cut its net loss to $541 million, down from $1 billion a year ago. Yet despite the strong results, shares initially fell more than 7% in after-hours trading Tuesday. Investors spooked not by the topline but by the cost side: SpaceX disclosed plans for a massive AI chip factory in East Texas, projected to cost up to $119 billion at full buildout. For shareholders, the question is whether mushrooming capital spending will eat into profits for years.
911 Million Shares Just Hit the Market
The August 6 lock-up expiration made 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale — increasing the public float by 143%, from 4.9% to 11.8% of total shares.
SpaceX used an unusual staggered structure: insiders may sell up to 20% of eligible shares in this first tranche.
Yet the stock bucked conventional wisdom and pulled higher on the unlock day , suggesting much of the selling pressure was already priced in. JPMorgan noted "significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration."
AI Is Now the Swing Factor
SpaceX's AI division generated $2.56 billion in Q2 revenue, up 247% year-over-year.
CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reiterated a $300 price target, calling SpaceX "uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI." But at the current price — still below the $135 IPO level — the market is signaling doubt that AI spending will pay off before cash runs thin.
What Comes Next Could Sting
The 180-day lock-up block fully expires on December 8, 2026 , meaning additional tranches of supply are coming. Elon Musk's own shares remain locked for at least one year after the IPO. Today's rally buys time, but not certainty.