Shares of SanDisk surged to $942.99 — up 5.7% in live trading Monday — as investors scrambled to front-run what may be the biggest forced-buying event in the stock's short history as a public company. Nasdaq announced April 10 that SanDisk will replace Atlassian in the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on April 20. The stock has rocketed +33% in just five trading days, from $710.80 on April 7 to today's price near $943.
• Over $600 Billion in Funds Will Now Have to Buy the Stock
The Nasdaq-100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products, including the popular QQQ fund, with these products managing over $600 billion in global assets. When SanDisk officially enters the index April 20, passive funds that mirror the Nasdaq-100 must purchase shares regardless of price — a mechanical buying wave that typically pushes stocks higher in the days before inclusion. That wave is already in progress.
• AI-Driven Revenue Growth Is Real, But Profits Are Still Missing
This isn't pure hype. SanDisk's fiscal 2026 second-quarter revenue reached $3.03 billion, with data center revenue growing 64% sequentially, fueled by demand from AI infrastructure builders. Yet the company's trailing profit margin sits at -11.66%, with net income of -$1.04 billion on $8.93 billion in trailing revenue.
Wall Street expects fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $42.37, projecting a sharp swing to profitability. That translates to a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 22x at current prices — reasonable if the profit turnaround materializes. Earnings are due April 30.
• A 2,640% Annual Gain Makes the Valuation Question Unavoidable
Shares have appreciated approximately 2,640% over the trailing twelve months , lifting SanDisk's market capitalization to roughly $125.7 billion . InvestingPro's fair value framework suggests the stock already trades above intrinsic value.
Some analysts have raised targets to $1,250 , but the consensus one-year estimate sits at just $825 — nearly 13% below today's price.
• The Bigger Signal: Hardware Is Replacing Software at the Index Level
This rebalancing signals that AI-era beneficiaries are no longer limited to the software layer; hardware and storage chain companies are moving into the index's core, while software companies face more stringent valuation scrutiny.
The bottom line: index inclusion guarantees short-term demand, but with a stock priced well above analyst targets and profitability still unproven, April 30 earnings will determine whether SanDisk can hold its seat among the Nasdaq's elite — or if passive buying merely set the stage for a painful correction.