Shares of Sivers Semiconductors plunged 14.9% to $2.94 on Thursday as a bearish analyst note amplified growing doubts about whether this tiny Swedish chipmaker's stock price has outrun its business. The selloff landed against a brutal backdrop: semiconductor stocks have tumbled into bear-market territory, falling more than 20% from their highs as investors grow increasingly concerned about hyperscalers' massive AI spending.
• A $30 Million Business Carrying a Billion-Dollar Valuation The math is hard to ignore. As of March 2026, Sivers has trailing 12-month revenue of just $30.5 million. Yet its market cap recently sat near $952 million.
The forward EV/Sales multiple has soared to 71x on AI hype — meaning investors are paying $71 for every $1 of expected near-term sales. The bearish note argued this premium is unjustified for a company that has never turned a profit, and any delay in converting pipeline to revenue could leave shareholders exposed.
• Revenue Is Growing — But Also Shrinking
In 2025, Sivers' revenue was SEK 306.6 million, up 39.9% year-over-year. But the most recent quarter told a different story: Q1 2026 revenue was SEK 61.9 million, down 22% year-over-year. Management blamed U.S. defense budget delays and currency headwinds, saying revenues were pushed from the first half into the second half of 2026. Bears see a pattern of lumpy, unpredictable income that makes valuation guesswork.
• The Losses Keep Piling Up
Sivers posted a net loss of SEK -186.5 million for 2025, with negative operating cash flow of SEK -57.2 million.
Its Q1 2026 earnings per share of -kr0.14 missed the consensus estimate of -kr0.10. The company recently raised capital to stay funded, but every dilutive raise chips away at existing shareholders' stakes.
• A Massive Pipeline That Hasn't Become Revenue Yet Bulls point to an enormous opportunity funnel: the pipeline expanded 77% year-to-date to $799 million as of May 2026.
Product ramps in automotive sensors, AI data-center lasers, and satellite communications are expected to drive transformational growth into 2027. But a pipeline is a wish list, not a contract backlog. Concerns about AI infrastructure spending deceleration — with hyperscaler capex growth normalizing after the explosive 2024–2025 period — raise the question of whether those deals will actually close on schedule. Until revenue catches up to the stock's ambitions, Sivers remains a bet on a future that keeps getting pushed to the next quarter.