Rocket Lab's CEDEAR Drops 13% as Blue Origin's Fireball and a SpaceX Valuation Haircut Force Investors to Ask: What Is a Space Stock Really Worth?

Shares of Rocket Lab's Argentine-traded CEDEAR (RKLBD.BA) plunged 13.1% to $10.70 on June 1, extending a brutal selloff that has erased roughly 18% of value in just three trading sessions. The trigger wasn't anything Rocket Lab did wrong — it was a one-two punch from its rivals that is forcing the entire space sector to reprice risk.

• A Competitor's Explosion Reminded Everyone Rockets Blow Up. A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad at Cape Canaveral on the night of May 28 during a routine engine test.

Launch Complex 36 is currently Blue Origin's only pad for New Glenn, so extensive damage could keep the rocket grounded for a significant period. The blast had nothing to do with Rocket Lab's operations, but investors sold across the board: AST SpaceMobile lost nearly 15% on Friday alone.

Rocket Lab's U.S.-listed shares fell 3.1% to $143.48 on the same day, and the CEDEAR — which tracks those shares with a lag and local currency factors — is amplifying the move today.

• SpaceX's $200 Billion Valuation Cut Reset the Whole Sector's Ceiling. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is now seeking a valuation of "at least $1.8 trillion," down $200 billion from its initial target. That matters because once SpaceX goes public, investors who are excited about space will be able to buy the actual SpaceX, not just invest in "second-string substitutes." If the industry's biggest player is worth less than expected, every smaller peer — Rocket Lab included at an ~$86 billion market cap — faces downward pressure on how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of revenue.

• Rocket Lab's Business Hasn't Changed, but the Stock Was Already Stretched. Rocket Lab posted Q1 revenue of $200.35 million, up 64% year over year, and holds a backlog of $2.2 billion.

Yet with a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 56 — compared to the S&P 500 average of 3.2 — shares were priced for perfection.

Technical indicators showed the stock was extremely overbought, far above its 50-week average of ~$68. That made it vulnerable to exactly this kind of sentiment-driven correction.

• The SpaceX IPO on June 12 Is the Next Make-or-Break Moment. SpaceX's roadshow begins next week, with share sales expected to commence June 11 and pricing possibly on June 12. A successful blockbuster debut could reignite space-stock enthusiasm — or, as some analysts warn, become a classic "buy-the-news" setup that flips to "sell-the-news" right after the headline hits. CEDEAR holders face the added wrinkle of Argentine peso volatility layered on top.