Shares of Rigetti Computing surged 10.2% to $15.59 on Monday after Benchmark initiated coverage with a Buy rating, reigniting investor enthusiasm for a quantum computing sector that remains years away from generating meaningful commercial revenue. The move comes as Rigetti rides a wave of government backing and speculative momentum — raising the question of whether Wall Street's attention reflects genuine fundamentals or simply a crowded bet on a distant future. Benchmark Slaps a Buy on Rigetti With a $25 Target — but Can a $4.7 Billion Company Running on $10 Million in Revenue Deliver?
Shares jumped 10.2% to $15.59 Monday after Benchmark analyst David Williams initiated coverage of Rigetti Computing with a Buy rating and a $25 price target, part of a broader restart of the firm's quantum computing sector coverage. Benchmark also assigned Buy ratings to peers IonQ and D-Wave Quantum, with targets of $60 and $30 respectively. The call landed alongside news that D-Wave secured an AT&T partnership , lifting the entire quantum group. For Rigetti shareholders, the question is whether fresh Wall Street sponsorship changes anything about a company still burning cash against tiny revenue.
A $25 Target Implies 64% Upside — but the Math Is Built on Faith. Benchmark's target implies 64% upside, yet the stock may be overvalued at current levels with a fair value estimate of just $8.34. Analyst price targets range from $20 to $40, with a market cap of $4.7 billion despite generating just $10 million in revenue over the last twelve months.
Rigetti's price-to-sales ratio stands at roughly 445, dwarfing the Nasdaq-100's 6.1. This is a stock priced entirely on what quantum computing might become, not what it earns today.
Government Money Buys Time, but It Comes With Strings. The Department of Commerce will invest up to $100 million in Rigetti through CHIPS Act funding; the company is one of only nine quantum businesses selected to share in a $2 billion government commitment. Critically, the funding is milestone-based — Rigetti must hit specific R&D targets to unlock capital — and the government receives an equity stake in return. That dilutes existing shareholders while validating the technology's strategic importance.
Revenue Is Growing Fast From a Microscopic Base. Q1 2026 revenue hit $4.4 million, a 198% year-over-year increase, with Q2 expected to reach $5.1 million — but this remains trivial against a $4.7 billion market cap.
The company holds $569 million in cash with no debt , giving it years of runway. Yet full-year 2025 revenue was just $7.1 million, a 34% decline from 2024, with losses widening to $216 million.
The Analyst Says Don't Pick One Winner. Williams cautioned that "quantum computing … is NOT a 'winner-takes-all' situation" and recommended a "portfolio approach to investing in the sector." Translation: even the bull isn't fully confident Rigetti will be the winner. Quantum advantage remains roughly three years away by management's own estimate. Until then, investors are paying a premium for possibility — and Monday's rally shows how easily sentiment, not fundamentals, moves this stock.