Shares of the New York Times Company vaulted 12.45% to $79.31 on September 22, their sharpest single-day gain in years, after unsealed court filings turned the company's copyright battle against OpenAI and Microsoft into the most closely watched legal contest in AI. No earnings release or corporate announcement accompanied the move — this is a litigation trade, pure and simple.
• Internal Emails From the Defendants May Be the Times's Best Weapon. On September 17, an unredacted court filing was unsealed revealing candid statements by executives at both OpenAI and Microsoft, including one Microsoft executive who called AI content scraping "an astonishing theft of unprecedented proportions."
Separately, an OpenAI executive allegedly acknowledged their chatbots posed an "existential threat" to journalism by delivering information directly and sparing readers the click-through.
Legal experts say these admissions are devastating for the defendants' fair-use claim — the legal argument that training AI on copyrighted work is allowed because it transforms the original material into something new.
• Options Traders Are Betting on a Fast Resolution. Approximately 4,400 October call spreads — bets that the stock will keep rising — have been purchased in recent sessions. The October expiration implies traders expect a summary judgment ruling or a settlement could land within weeks, a likelihood the unsealed emails just increased. That is aggressive positioning for a stock with a $11 billion market cap that typically trades on subscription growth, not courtroom drama.
• A Wall Street Upgrade Already Had the Stock Moving. NYT shares rose 3.5% on September 15 after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $82 from $70.
Analyst Michael Morris cited the company's ability to sustain low-double-digit digital advertising growth through 2027 and expects digital subscriptions to grow about 10% next year. The upgrade gave the stock a floor, but the litigation news launched it through the ceiling.
• The Government Threw AI Companies a Lifeline — and It May Not Be Enough. In early September, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a brief supporting OpenAI and Microsoft, invoking "scientific progress," economic growth, and "national security."
Still, a ruling on summary judgment from Judge Sidney Stein is not expected until 2027. The Times is seeking billions in damages. Court documents allege OpenAI scraped content from more than 10 million articles, nearly a third from the Times alone. A favorable ruling — or a rich settlement — would transform the company's financial picture. But that outcome is far from certain, and today's price already bakes in considerable optimism.