Reports emerged on June 1st that renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes sent shockwaves through energy markets, with natural gas futures surging as traders priced in the growing risk that the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas — could remain shut for months or longer. For anyone holding natural gas contracts or energy stocks, this is the most consequential supply disruption since the 1970s oil embargo. Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut, Europe Heads Into Winter With Empty Tanks — Can Natural Gas Prices Stay Below $4?
Renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes on June 1st shattered fading hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, sending European natural gas futures surging more than 6% toward €49 per megawatt hour and pushing U.S. Henry Hub prices to $3.37/MMBtu, their highest since early February. European natural gas futures extended gains as renewed geopolitical tensions raised concerns over global energy supplies. For anyone exposed to energy markets — utilities, industrials, consumers — the math is getting uglier by the week.
• Three Months of Blocked Shipping With No End in Sight. The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely closed for three months, after Iran declared it shut on March 4th. The closure has affected over 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supplies, or approximately 20%, mostly from Qatar's Ras Laffan export facility. Iran's latest decision to suspend back-channel communications with Washington eliminates any near-term path to reopening. Existing pipeline bypass routes can collectively handle only approximately 35% of normal Hormuz throughput, leaving a structural 65% gap. That gap cannot be closed by diplomacy alone.
• Europe Is Dangerously Low on Gas Before Winter. European storage facilities are currently around 38% full, well below the five-year average of more than 50% for this time of year. This is the continent's most critical refilling period before heating demand returns in October. Several publications have projected Europe will enter an energy crisis in 2026 similar to 2022, when Dutch TTF benchmarks nearly doubled to over €60/MWh by mid-March. If storage gaps persist, industrial rationing and double-digit utility price hikes become real possibilities.
• U.S. Producers Can't Fill the Hole Fast Enough. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports will increase, but only by a small portion of the missing volumes; approved capacity boosts total just 0.6 Bcf/d since February. Approximately 2.4 Bcf/d of new export capacity will come online between April and December 2026, but that barely dents the 10+ Bcf/d hole left by Qatar. U.S. facilities are already "maxed out" — you can't boost LNG production if you're already running at 100%.
• Damage to Qatar Could Tighten Markets for Years. Damage to LNG infrastructure in Qatar is set to delay the anticipated global LNG expansion wave by at least two years, with a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.
The market is projected to remain tight through 2026 and 2027. That means today's price spike is not a one-day event — it is the front edge of a structural supply deficit that reprices every gas-dependent industry on the planet.