Shares of Newmont jumped 6.5% to $99.37 on July 2 without any fresh company announcement, as investors circled back to the world's largest gold miner after a punishing slide from its $134.88 52-week high. The bounce appears to be a belated recognition that the stock's selloff — Newmont declined over 12% in the past month amid a commodity price correction and cautious 2026 production guidance — had overshot the fundamentals laid out in its blockbuster Q1 report.
A Quarter That Looked "Almost Fictional" Got Ignored in the Selloff. Newmont posted Q1 2026 revenue of $7.31 billion and net income of $3.26 billion , beating earnings estimates of $2.24 per share with adjusted EPS of $2.90 . Net income nearly doubled year-over-year, a roughly 96% increase , yet the stock drifted lower for weeks as gold slipped. At today's price, NEM trades at roughly 12× trailing earnings — a discount that suggests the market is pricing in a gold downturn the company's own cash flow hasn't yet confirmed.
$6 Billion in Buybacks Could Shrink the Stock Into a Tighter Box. Newmont fully utilized a prior $6.0 billion buyback and its board approved an additional $6.0 billion program . That firepower equals roughly 6% of the current market cap. Per-share free cash flow is already 6% higher than before the repurchase program began . Every share retired at depressed prices amplifies future earnings per share — a mechanical tailwind that works best when a stock is cheap, which is exactly where NEM sits today.
Record Cash Flow Meets a Wobbling Gold Market. Free cash flow reached a record $3.14 billion as operating cash rose to $3.79 billion and capital expenditures moderated to $641 million . But gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce recently, trading near its lowest level in almost eight months as strong U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year . Newmont realized $4,900/oz in Q1 — gold was set to drop roughly 11% in Q2, its worst quarter in decades . If that price gap narrows, the profit machine slows.
Lower Production Is the Quiet Risk Behind the Headlines. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces , and expects Q2 production to fall further . Management described 2026 as a production trough year, with output expected to grow back toward 6 million ounces as higher-grade zones come online. Investors buying the dip are betting that promise materializes before gold prices weaken further — a wager today's bounce suggests many are now willing to make.