Nebius Surges 9% Before Its Biggest Earnings Test Yet — Can a $46 Billion Contract Stack Justify a Company Still Losing Money?

Shares of Nebius Group rocketed 9.3% in pre-market trading to $211.12 ahead of the AI infrastructure builder's Q2 2026 earnings release, due before Wednesday's open. The stock had pulled back roughly 16% in the week prior , making this morning's bounce a high-stakes bet that the numbers will vindicate bulls — even as one of the world's most famous short-sellers sits on the other side of the trade.

A Revenue Rocket That Still Burns Cash

Wall Street consensus expects Q2 revenue near $573–$575 million, roughly a 446% year-over-year increase. That follows Q1's $399 million in revenue, up 684% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA swinging to a $129.5 million profit. But dig deeper: the underlying adjusted net loss was about $100 million, a reminder that the core business still spends far more than it earns.

Analysts expect a Q2 loss of $0.72 per share.

Michael Burry Is Betting Against Nebius — and Wall Street Is Betting For It

Burry shorted NBIS at $211.77, describing the trade as "a bit like shooting fish in a barrel."

His core argument: AI infrastructure companies overstate profits by depreciating expensive chips too slowly. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy with a Street-high $286 price target , while D.A. Davidson cut its target to $175, citing delays at Nebius's flagship New Jersey data center. That $111 gap between the two targets tells you how divided the Street really is.

A $20–$25 Billion Spending Spree Needs Constant Funding

Nebius raised its 2026 capital-expenditure target to $20–$25 billion — staggering for a company guiding $3–$3.4 billion in full-year revenue. Nebius holds a $19.4 billion Microsoft supply agreement and a $27 billion Meta AI contract, bringing its total contract stack to roughly $46 billion.

Investors will be watching closely for the size of new customer prepayments, updates on secured debt, and whether management can show how much of the buildout is already funded.

CoreWeave's Beat Lit the Fuse

Neocloud rival CoreWeave beat estimates and jumped 14% in after-hours trading Tuesday , giving Nebius bulls a read-through that demand for AI computing power remains robust. If Nebius matches that signal with its own numbers at 8 a.m. Eastern, the stock's rebound could stick. If not, Burry's short — entered almost exactly at today's price — becomes the defining narrative.