Nebius Raises $4.3 Billion in Convertible Debt to Fund an AI Empire — But Can It Build Fast Enough?

Shares of Nebius Group stabilized near $117.59 on March 23, settling after a turbulent week that saw the stock surge 14.96% on a blockbuster $27 billion Meta deal, then give back gains as the company closed one of the largest convertible debt offerings in recent tech history. The question investors face: Is Nebius raising money at the right speed to match its promises?

• The Debt Is Cheap — If the Stock Keeps Rising. Nebius closed its convertible note offering at $4.34 billion in total, split between $2.59 billion in notes due 2031 at 1.25% interest and $1.75 billion due 2033 at 2.625%.

The 2031 notes convert to stock only at roughly $183.22 per share — a 57.5% premium to the price when the deal was struck.

The notes also grow in value over time, reaching 120% of their original face value at maturity, pushing the effective conversion price above $219 per share. In plain terms: lenders only become shareholders if the stock nearly doubles. That's good for current investors — unless growth stalls and the company still owes billions in principal.

• A $27 Billion Contract with Meta Explains the Urgency. Meta committed up to $27 billion over five years — $12 billion in dedicated computing capacity across multiple sites and up to $15 billion in additional capacity from Nebius's data centers.

Delivery starts early 2027 , meaning Nebius must spend now to build then. Proceeds are earmarked for data center construction, its AI cloud platform, and GPU purchases.

• The Customer List Is Impressive — the Losses Are Too. Combined with a $19.4 billion Microsoft deal and $2 billion Nvidia investment, Nebius has over $48 billion in committed capital and contracts. Yet despite a gross margin of 68.63%, the operating margin is deeply negative at -112.53% , and free cash flow is "deeply negative." Revenue is growing fast — three-year growth of 283.9% — but profitability remains distant.

• The Stock Has Cooled, and Analysts Aren't Chasing. Shares are still up 353% over 12 months , but the post-Meta pop has faded. The most recent analyst rating is a Hold with a $121 price target — barely above today's price. Nebius says its 2026 guidance is unchanged , signaling the Meta revenue won't materially hit financials until 2027. Investors are buying a construction story — and construction is expensive.