Shares of Nebius Group surged 11.9% to $213.06, extending a violent multi-day rebound that has seen the stock climb more than 40% from its late-July low of roughly $146. The catalyst: a wave of renewed confidence in AI infrastructure spending, anchored by a $1 billion compute deal with startup Reflection AI and amplified by strong earnings from Big Tech cloud providers.
• A Billion-Dollar Contract That Locks In Revenue Through 2029
The deal gives Reflection AI — founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers — access to Nvidia's GB300 chips through Nebius's cloud, running through 2029.
This is Reflection's second major infrastructure agreement despite not yet having launched a public AI model , which tells you how frenzied the race to lock in computing power has become. For Nebius, it adds another name to a client roster that already includes Meta (a five-year deal worth up to $27 billion) and Microsoft (a multi-year agreement worth up to $19.4 billion).
• Revenue Is Exploding, But the Spending Bill Is Staggering
Q1 revenue hit $399 million, up 684% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA swung to a $129.5 million profit from a $53.7 million loss. Yet the company is guiding for $20 billion to $25 billion in capital spending this year — orders of magnitude above its revenue. On an adjusted basis, the company still posted a net loss of $100.3 million in Q1 , meaning the gap between what Nebius earns and what it spends remains enormous.
• Nvidia's Backing Gives Nebius a Structural Edge — and a Dependency
Nvidia holds an 8.3% stake after investing $2 billion , granting Nebius early access to next-generation chips and keeping its data centers running the newest hardware before competitors. That's a powerful advantage, but it also makes Nebius heavily reliant on a single supplier for its core product.
• Earnings Next Week Will Test Whether the Rally Has Legs
Nebius reports Q2 results on August 12, with Wall Street expecting a loss of $0.61 per share on revenue of $583 million. Analysts carry a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $232.08 . The stock now trades just below that ceiling. Any shortfall in revenue growth or a further capex hike could puncture the momentum; a beat could send shares into uncharted territory.
The bottom line: Nebius is selling every GPU-hour it can build, and marquee clients keep signing billion-dollar checks. But with capital spending dwarfing revenue roughly 50 to 1, shareholders are betting this is the early innings of a future cash machine — not just an expensive construction project.