Shares of Nebius Group surged 6.3% to $132.92 on April 9 after Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $129 price target — a figure the stock had already blown past by midday. The initiation caps a blistering 43.8% rally from March 30, but the real question is whether Nebius's ambitions match its price tag.
The Stock Already Outran the Analyst's Math Cantor's $129 target sits below the current trading price, meaning the market is pricing in more optimism than the first Wall Street initiation justifies. The broader analyst consensus pegs the average target at $169, with the most bullish call at $291 , so Cantor's number is conservative by comparison. That gap signals investors are betting on execution that even the new bull hasn't fully underwritten.
$46 Billion in Contracts, But the Bill Comes First Nebius's demand story is real. Meta signed a five-year deal worth up to $27 billion, Microsoft committed up to $19.4 billion, and combined these contracts represent roughly $46 billion in committed revenue. But the cash has to go out before it comes in: the company plans $16 to $20 billion in capital spending this year against just $3 to $3.4 billion in guided revenue.
About 40% of the funding still needs to be raised through additional debt or equity sales — meaning current shareholders will likely see their stakes diluted (their ownership percentage shrinks as new shares are issued).
Explosive Growth From a Tiny Base
Q4 2025 revenue hit $227.7 million, up over 500% year-over-year, and the company exited 2025 at an annualized run rate of $1.25 billion.
For 2026, Nebius projects revenue of $3–$3.4 billion and targets a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin (a rough measure of operating profitability). Yet trailing twelve-month revenue is just $530 million, giving the stock a price-to-sales ratio near 52 — investors are paying $52 for every $1 of current sales. That's a bet on the future, not the present.
Earnings on April 29 Will Be the Real Test
Nebius reports next on April 29 , and shareholders need to see proof that planned data center capacity of 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by year-end is on schedule. With capacity sold out in Q4, the constraint isn't demand — it's building fast enough to serve it. Cantor's endorsement adds credibility, but at $132, the stock is already priced for near-flawless delivery.