Shares of Vail Resorts (MTN) cratered to $126.61 on June 9, erasing more than $400 million in market value overnight after the ski-resort giant reported its weakest quarter in years and slashed its full-year profit forecast — again. For a company whose entire model rests on predictable, upfront pass revenue, three consecutive guidance cuts in a single fiscal year raise a sharper question: how much protection does the subscription model really offer when the snow doesn't fall?
• Revenue and Earnings Fell Hard, and the Miss Wasn't Small
EPS came in at $8.81, below the Street's $9.09 estimate , while revenue of $1.21 billion missed the projected $1.22 billion . Net income dropped 19.3% to $314.4 million , and Resort EBITDA — Vail's key profitability measure — fell 9.5% to $586.4 million . This is the company's core quarter, covering the heart of ski season, and the damage is now baked in.
• Three Guidance Cuts Tell a Story of a Season That Kept Getting Worse
Full-year Resort EBITDA guidance is now $735M–$755M , down from a range that started the year at $842M–$898M before the first cut in March brought it to $745M–$775M . That's a roughly $120 million midpoint reduction. Skier visits plunged 15.5% , with the Rockies absorbing a 25% visitation decline .
• Next Season's Pass Sales Are Already Soft
Early-bird pass units sold for the 2026/2027 season are down roughly 10%, with sales dollars off about 5% . Management argues skiers are delaying purchases, not canceling them, but the data is thin comfort. If pass renewal rates don't recover by fall, next year's revenue cushion shrinks before the first chairlift spins.
• The Balance Sheet Is Holding — Barely
Net debt stands at 3.5x trailing EBITDA , up from 3.1x at the end of Q2 . The board held the dividend at $2.22/share , but the gap between the payout and this year's shrinking earnings is widening . Cost cuts are delivering $106 million in annualized savings , yet efficiency can only do so much when the top line is weather-dependent and visitation is in free fall.