Shares of Moderna plunged 11.9% to $216.65 on Thursday as investors locked in profits from a breathtaking cancer-vaccine rally, with the critical question now just two days away: will the full data justify one of biotech's wildest runs?
• A Single Trial Turned a COVID Company Into a Cancer Story — and a 700% Gainer. Moderna's stock more than doubled on August 19 after the company announced its personalized mRNA vaccine showed success treating melanoma in combination with Merck's Keytruda.
The stock is now up roughly 700% this year, lifting its market cap to approximately $98 billion. Today's selloff is the second sharp pullback in a week, signaling that traders who rode the surge are cashing out before Saturday's data reveal introduces fresh risk.
• The Full Numbers Haven't Been Seen — That's the Problem. The Phase 3 result so far is a company topline announcement without published hazard ratios.
The exact efficacy numbers have not been released yet; they will be shared at ESMO in Madrid on October 24. Earlier Phase 2b five-year follow-up data showed a 49% reduced risk of recurrence or death (hazard ratio 0.51) and a 59% reduced risk of the cancer spreading (hazard ratio 0.411). If the larger, 1,137-patient Phase 3 trial falls short of those benchmarks, the premium baked into the stock could evaporate quickly.
• Wall Street's Price Targets Sit Far Below the Stock. According to 23 analysts polled by S&P Global, the consensus rating is "Hold" with an average price target of $123.61 — roughly 48% below the current price.
The highest target among analysts is $200, still below today's trading level; the lowest is $45. That gap suggests most professional forecasters believe the rally has outrun the evidence. Only one outlier, Oddo BHF, has raised its target to $251.
• Thin Revenue Makes the Stock a Pure Bet on Oncology. Moderna's second-quarter 2026 revenue was just $145 million against a net loss of $782 million.
The company guides to year-end cash of $4.7–$5.2 billion and revenue growth of up to 10% this year.
Shares trade at roughly 38.75 times trailing sales — an extreme valuation that only makes sense if the cancer vaccine becomes a major commercial product. Moderna's guidance leaves the valuation heavily tied to oncology. Saturday's readout in Madrid isn't just a medical milestone — it's the single biggest near-term test of whether this stock price has any foundation beneath it.