Gartner said today that more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030 if the current pace of capital spending continues. AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. Gartner projects another $6 trillion in investment from 2027 through 2030.
Gartner says projected revenue from enterprise and consumer AI will not support profitable returns on all planned capital expenditures. AI data center owners would need $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover spending and financing and earn a return on invested capital. Gartner’s estimate assumes a 12% return on invested capital. The firm forecasts attributable revenue of no more than $3.6 trillion over the same period. The shortfall could lead to significant asset-value write-downs.