IBIT Slides 1.9% as War-Driven Inflation Spike Batters Risk Assets — Can Institutional Inflows Keep the Bitcoin ETF Afloat?

Shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF slipped to $40.13 in pre-market trading Monday as a fresh escalation in the energy crisis collided with Friday's scorching inflation print, forcing investors to reconsider how much risk they're willing to hold.

• A Record Gasoline Shock Is Driving the Selloff, Not Crypto-Specific News. March CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month — triple February's pace — pushing annual inflation to 3.3%. Energy costs surged 10.9%, led by a 21.2% gasoline spike that accounted for nearly three-quarters of the increase.

The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which began in late February, has swiftly set back progress on inflation. For IBIT holders, this matters because higher inflation makes the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates, which historically squeezes assets like Bitcoin that pay no yield. Markets are already pricing little chance of a rate cut through the rest of 2026.

• The Energy Crisis Just Got Worse Over the Weekend. Oil and gas surged after the U.S. moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend talks, with Brent rallying as much as 7.8% toward $103 a barrel.

The EIA now expects Brent to peak at $115/barrel in Q2 2026. If energy keeps climbing, inflation could hit 4% before retreating, according to Capital Economics — a scenario that would keep pounding risk assets like Bitcoin and the ETFs that track it.

• Big Money Is Still Buying the Dip — For Now. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $358.1 million in net inflows on Thursday, with IBIT leading at $269.3 million.

Year to date, IBIT has attracted $1.5 billion in net inflows even as Bitcoin has declined from a 2026 peak near $97,000 to around $72,100.

But $269 million represents just 0.33% of IBIT's $54.76 billion in assets — hardly a tidal wave of conviction.

• Bitcoin's Inflation-Hedge Story Faces Its Biggest Test. Bitcoin prices are down a sharp 20% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, gold ETFs lead with $44.4 billion in net flows this year versus Bitcoin's $23.6 billion , suggesting that in a real crisis, investors still prefer the traditional safe haven. Core CPI — which strips out food and energy — rose just 0.2%, below forecasts , offering a sliver of hope that the underlying economy isn't overheating. But as long as bombs fall near the Strait of Hormuz, that distinction won't matter much for a -1.9% pre-market open.