Shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust slid to $40.22 Monday morning, down 3.4%, as American aircraft fired on Iranian military sites over the weekend, including Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded by striking a U.S. military base . Bitcoin opened at $73,568 and fell further to $71,400 by mid-morning , dragging the ETF that directly tracks its price. For IBIT shareholders, the selloff lands on top of what was already the worst stretch of outflows since launch.

  • Two Billion Dollars Have Left Bitcoin ETFs in Two Weeks — and IBIT Is the Biggest Loser. More than $2 billion has exited U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over a two-week period as investors reduced exposure amid heightened geopolitical risks, elevated Treasury yields, and concerns that inflation may remain higher for longer . IBIT alone recorded roughly $528 million in outflows on a single day — the second-largest daily withdrawal in the fund's history . Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since the start of 2026 have shrunk to just $536 million , a fraction of last year's pace.

  • The War Is Keeping Oil High, and That's Bad for Bitcoin. Brent crude surged nearly 64% after the February strikes and remains roughly 35% above pre-conflict levels despite an April ceasefire . Higher energy prices feed inflation expectations, which makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates — the exact catalyst Bitcoin bulls were counting on. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain rallies in tightening environments .

  • Investors Are Choosing Gold Over Bitcoin When Bullets Fly. The liquidity easing that would drive Bitcoin higher is downstream of a conflict that, in the near term, is pushing capital into traditional safety assets . Gold is trading near $4,520 — well above pre-war levels. Bitcoin and Ethereum investors are eager for a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but key sticking points continue to put prospects for long-term peace on shaky ground .

  • The Long-Term Case Isn't Dead, but It's on Hold. Cumulative inflows of $58.72 billion into Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024 demonstrate sustained long-term demand for regulated Bitcoin exposure . Bitcoin's RSI has dropped to around 35 — approaching oversold territory — but a break below $72,000 could increase downside risk toward $70,000 . Until the geopolitical fog clears, IBIT shareholders face a fund tethered to an asset behaving less like digital gold and more like a leveraged bet on global risk appetite.