Shares of iShares Gold Trust Micro slid 3.2% to $43.20 on June 5, marking the steepest single-session drop in weeks, after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report reshuffled investor bets on when — or whether — the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Jobs Report Blows Past Forecasts and Knocks IAUM Down 3.2% — Can Gold Bulls Still Make Their Case?
Shares of iShares Gold Trust Micro tumbled 3.2% to $43.20 on Friday after a blockbuster May jobs report crushed hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, sending the dollar and bond yields higher — both poison for gold. IAUM has now shed 4.6% from its $45.29 close just one week ago, raising a pointed question: with rate-cut bets evaporating, where does the floor for gold ETFs lie?
The Jobs Number More Than Doubled Expectations
Nonfarm payrolls jumped 172,000 in May, far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000.
Prior months were also revised sharply higher — March was bumped up by 29,000 to 214,000, and April was lifted by 64,000 to 179,000. That triple punch of a beat plus upward revisions tells the Fed the labor market isn't weakening — removing the main argument for rate cuts, which is what gold holders were counting on.
Rate-Cut Odds Are Collapsing, and That Directly Hurts Gold
Elevated April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year has positioned zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 69.3%.
Prediction markets now price a 97.8% probability the Fed holds steady at the June 16–17 meeting. Gold earns no interest, so when yields rise and the dollar strengthens, investors rotate into assets that pay them to wait. That math is the single biggest headwind for IAUM right now.
Gold Has Already Lost Ground From Its Peak — and May Not Be Done
Since the Middle East conflict began in late February, gold has lost about 16% as surging oil stoked inflation fears and pushed rate-hike odds higher. Spot gold fell to $4,408 per ounce Friday morning, down $95 from the previous day.
Some analysts now expect gold to decline toward the $4,370–$3,816 range by year-end if the Fed stays hawkish — which would translate into further losses for IAUM shareholders.
The June FOMC Meeting Is the Next Make-or-Break Moment
The June 10 CPI release and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with updated projections represent the next potential catalysts for any shift in gold pricing. With core inflation at 3.3% and Fed minutes confirming officials want more evidence of cooling before cutting, the burden of proof has shifted squarely onto gold bulls. For IAUM holders, the trade is simple: if inflation cools and rate cuts return to the table, gold rebounds. If it doesn't, Friday's drop may be just the beginning.