Shares of iShares Gold Trust (IAU) jumped 3.16% to $81.69 on June 15 after reports that U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs are reshaping the geopolitical calculus for gold, oil, and safe-haven assets simultaneously. The move caps a volatile week in which IAU swung from $76.79 to over $81, reflecting a market struggling to price peace against a backdrop of persistent macro uncertainty. Gold Rallies 3.2% on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal, but Will the Signing Ceremony Deliver or Disappoint Investors Banking on Lower Oil and Easier Policy
Shares of iShares Gold Trust surged 3.16% to $81.69 as markets digested the most consequential Middle East diplomatic breakthrough in years: the U.S. and Iran agreed on a deal to bring their nearly four-month war to an end, with both sides declaring the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. For IAU holders, the question now is whether this rally has legs — or whether gold gives it all back once the war premium fully unwinds.
A Deal Four Months in the Making Finally Lands
The official signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19 in Switzerland.
Trump declared on Truth Social that he "fully authorize[s] the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" and the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade." That waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, and its effective closure since February had made insurance unavailable or prohibitively expensive for vessels transiting the strait. Reopening it should pull crude prices sharply lower, which cuts inflation expectations — and that's bullish for gold.
Falling Oil Eases the Inflation Squeeze That Was Crushing Gold
U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% in May — the highest since April 2023 — driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict.
Since the conflict began, gold has faced pressure amid concerns that surging energy costs could drive inflation higher, reinforcing expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates. With the Strait reopening, energy costs should ease, potentially giving the new Fed Chair room to signal cuts rather than hikes — a tailwind for a non-yielding asset like gold.
Treasury Yields Are Already Sliding, Giving Gold a Boost
The 10-year yield fell to 4.48% by June 12 , down from 4.55% on June 5. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (which pays no interest), directly supporting IAU's price. Markets still price a 97% chance the Fed holds rates at its June 16–17 meeting, but 70% odds of at least one hike by December — meaning a sustained rally depends on whether peace actually cools inflation.
Wall Street Still Sees Gold Far Higher — If the Deal Holds
Gold sits at roughly $4,165, down 25% from its January all-time high of $5,589.
J.P. Morgan expects gold to push $6,000/oz by year end , implying massive upside. But Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing and rejected some reported drafts. If the June 19 signing collapses, oil spikes back, inflation fears return, and today's IAU rally evaporates fast.