Shares of Fermi Inc. plunged 10.2% to $6.50 on July 28 after Mizuho cut its price target to $11 from $27 — keeping an Outperform rating but acknowledging what the market has been pricing in for months: the company's flagship AI-power campus in Texas still has no signed anchor tenant. For a company that has yet to generate meaningful revenue, the delay turns every week without a lease into a direct hit on credibility and cash.
A 59% Target Cut That Still Sits Above the Stock Price — and That's the Problem. Mizuho believes Fermi is likely to sign a tenant in the next three months, but the new target assumes a push-out of tenant signings and higher capital spending because prospective customers want turnkey, ready-to-use facilities. Even at $11, the target implies roughly 69% upside from today's close — yet the stock trades below every major Wall Street estimate, signaling investors do not trust the timeline. The average analyst target has been revised downward by about 31% in the past three months alone.
No Tenant Means No Revenue, and the Clock Is Running on $375 Million in Fresh Debt. Earlier in July, Fermi completed a $375 million offering of 5.00% convertible senior notes due 2031 , raising cash to keep building. But the biggest risk is still funding a multibillion-dollar buildout without contracted cash flows.
In Q1 2026 the company posted a net loss of $189 million. Without a signed lease, that debt dilutes existing shareholders while interest costs grow — and the convertible structure means noteholders can eventually swap into stock, pushing the share count even higher.
Boardroom Chaos Adds a Layer of Risk Tenants Can See. Director Miles Everson resigned after the $375 million deal was completed without notifying all board members in advance; he stated he had not received board minutes for months. Co-founder Toby Neugebauer, who stepped down as CEO earlier this year, called the circumvention of basic board protocol on a $375 million financing round "simply inexcusable." Prospective tenants evaluating a decades-long power commitment are watching this dysfunction closely.
The Bottom Line: Fermi's Entire Thesis Is a Bet on One Signature. At full buildout, the company envisions up to 17 GW of generation capacity — gas, nuclear, solar and battery storage.
Management projects $4.3 billion in revenue and $3.2 billion in earnings by 2029. None of that materializes without a binding tenant lease. Until ink dries on a contract, every analyst target is a placeholder and every dollar of new debt raises the stakes.