Fermi's Stock Has Nearly Doubled in Days on OpenAI Whispers — But Without a Signed Deal, How Long Can Hype Power a Cash-Burning Startup?
Shares of Fermi Inc. climbed another 6.8% in pre-market Thursday to $9.25, extending a blistering rally that has carried the stock from $5.62 on June 9 to levels not seen in weeks. The catalyst: analyst firm JMP Citizens said OpenAI is likely among several counterparties evaluating capacity at Fermi's Project Matador AI power campus, and that a significant deal could be imminent . No contract has been signed. For a company burning cash at a furious rate, the gap between speculation and execution is where shareholder value will be made or lost.
OpenAI's Power Hunger Puts a Spotlight on Amarillo
OpenAI and its partners are evaluating potential data center locations across the country as demand for AI grows . Fermi's campus operates as a behind-the-meter power solution — meaning it generates electricity on-site — making it particularly appealing to hyperscale operators facing extended timelines for connecting to traditional power grids . The site targets roughly 1.1 gigawatts of power by year-end, with plans to scale to 17 GW by 2038 . In a market where OpenAI alone is pursuing 10+ GW of new capacity, Fermi's pitch has clear relevance — if it can deliver.
The Rally Is Built on Analyst Commentary, Not a Contract
No formal agreement has been announced; the stock movement stems from analyst observations rather than confirmed contracts . Last month, Fermi hinted at securing a leasing agreement with a new tenant within 90 days, but details have not been divulged . A signed lease would be transformational for a company with zero commercial revenue from the campus. Without one, the ~65% gain in seven sessions is pricing in a future that remains speculative.
The Balance Sheet Shows a Company Still Deep in Build Mode
Fermi posted a quarterly net loss of about $188.7 million and negative free cash flow near $448.5 million . The balance sheet shows roughly $1.77 billion in assets, but a current ratio of 0.5 and working capital of approximately negative $354.6 million signal tight liquidity . Fermi recently secured around $785 million in new equipment financing, including a $500 million facility from MUFG — necessary capital, but it adds to a growing debt load.
A Boardroom War Adds Uncertainty to the Timeline
Fermi has filed an SEC statement to push back against former CEO Toby Neugebauer, who is trying to seize the board and potentially force a rapid sale of the company . Key commercial and financing counterparties have indicated their support depends on stable governance without Neugebauer in control . The outcome of this proxy fight could determine whether an OpenAI deal — or any major tenant agreement — actually gets done. Investors riding the momentum should watch the boardroom as closely as the data center.