Shares of Freeport-McMoRan plunged 10.4% to $62.47 on Friday, wiping out roughly $10 billion in market value in one of the stock's sharpest single-day drops in years. The sell-off came on two fronts: investors cashed in gains after a blistering rally that had pushed shares up nearly 10% in just four trading days, and a stronger-than-expected May jobs report rattled the entire commodity complex by raising the odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike.

  • A Hot Jobs Report Punishes Anything Tied to Economic Cycles. May payrolls came in well above expectations, with a three-month average running at 188,000 and unemployment near historic lows at 4.3%.

Markets now price above 50% odds of at least a quarter-point rate increase by October. Higher rates raise borrowing costs and cool industrial activity — the very engine that drives copper demand and, in turn, FCX's revenues. Copper futures declined toward $6.4 per pound on Friday as expectations for tighter monetary policy weighed on demand prospects.

  • The Stock Had Run Too Far, Too Fast. FCX surged from $65.71 on May 29 to $71.72 by June 2 — a 9.1% sprint in three sessions fueled by bullish options flow and a Barclays "Overweight" initiation. Over the past 52 weeks the stock has gained 78.3%, and it's up 41.2% year-to-date — a pace that left it trading above the analyst consensus target of $69.28. When a stock overshoots where most professionals think it should be, even modest bad news can trigger a stampede for the exits.

  • Grasberg Troubles Cloud the Earnings Upside. Q1 results were strong — net income rose to $881 million from $352 million a year earlier, revenue hit $6.23 billion, and realized copper prices climbed to $5.78 per pound. But Grasberg mine production guidance was slashed to 60,000 tons/day in H2 2026 from 100,000, with 9% copper and 7% gold output cuts expected through 2031. That means the company's highest-margin asset will run at reduced capacity for years.

  • The Long-Term Copper Story Hasn't Changed — But Patience Is Required. Copper is trading at record levels near $13,800 per tonne, driven by supply disruptions, tariff uncertainty, and demand from AI infrastructure and electrification.

The Fed currently holds rates at 3.5–3.75% , and any move higher would further pressure near-term sentiment. Investors must weigh blockbuster copper fundamentals against a hawkish Fed and a hobbled Grasberg — a tension that could keep FCX volatile through the summer.