Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter. This risk scenario assumes prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Persian Gulf oil flows would need to remain significantly below pre-war levels to reach this peak.
The bank's baseline forecast projects Brent will average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Analysts expect prices to moderate to $75 per barrel the following year. This base case assumes an easing of regional geopolitical tensions.
Overall risks remain tilted to the upside due to the critical nature of the Strait of Hormuz. Potential shipping interruptions in the Red Sea further threaten global supply stability.