Shares of PT Antam (Persero) Tbk plunged 7.0% to IDR 2,400 on November 4, after Maybank and UBS both slashed their price targets for the Indonesian state-controlled miner. Both banks cut their targets while keeping buy ratings , but the downgrade landed on a stock already bleeding — down roughly 14% from IDR 2,800 just a week ago. Antam shares have now fallen about 20% year-to-date in 2026 , even as the company posted strong headline growth through the first nine months.
A Profit Machine That the Market Doesn't Trust. Antam reported January–September 2026 net sales of IDR 88.48 trillion, up 23% year on year, with net profit up 46% to IDR 9.66 trillion.
Operating income jumped 53% to IDR 12.05 trillion, pointing to clearly widening margins. Yet the stock trades at just ~7.6x trailing earnings, well below its 52-week high of IDR 4,970. The gap between earnings strength and share-price weakness tells investors the market is pricing in a sharp slowdown ahead.
Gold Oversupply Could Dent Antam's Biggest Cash Cow. Gold remained the main driver at 77% of sales , generating IDR 68.41 trillion through September. Analysts highlight a potential oversupply of gold in the domestic market that has already squeezed Antam's margins for two straight quarters. That means even if global gold prices hold above $5,000 an ounce, the spread Antam earns selling bullion bars to Indonesian retail buyers — a key profit lever — is narrowing.
Nickel Ore Pricing Is Turning Against Them. A 13% quarter-on-quarter decline in average nickel ore selling prices to US$69 per wet metric ton in Q3 may pressure margins.
Additional Indonesian ore supply could add to pricing pressure in Q4. While ferronickel sales surged 71% to 13,971 tonnes of nickel , those volumes may not offset shrinking per-ton profits as smelters push back on paying premiums.
Analysts Disagree — and That's the Real Risk. The average 12-month target across 17 analysts is IDR 4,531 — nearly double today's price. BRI Danareksa actually raised its target, citing expectations for improving margins and downstream processing. This split signals genuine uncertainty: if gold margins stabilize and nickel volumes hold, the stock is deeply undervalued. If the squeeze deepens, current prices may reflect reality more accurately than the consensus target does.