Shares jumped to $20.64 on Tuesday as investors piled back into the tungsten miner following a pullback, propelled by a blowout first quarter and a pivotal shareholder vote one week away. The rally tests whether Almonty Industries can maintain its leap from money-losing developer to profitable critical-minerals producer at a moment when geopolitics is rewriting the tungsten supply map.

  • A 221% Revenue Surge Proves the Business Model Has Flipped. Q1 2026 revenue soared 221% year-over-year to $25.4 million, driven by record tungsten pricing. More critically, the company generated $9.7 million in positive operating cash flow, compared to negative $4.4 million a year ago — meaning the business is now self-funding day-to-day operations instead of burning cash. Adjusted EBITDA (a rough measure of operating profit before accounting adjustments) swung to positive $6.1 million from negative $2.4 million. The net loss of $5.3 million was largely a paper artifact: $8.4 million in non-cash charges tied to warrant and derivative revaluations driven by the stock's own rise from $12.07 to $20.24 during the quarter.

  • A June 9 Vote Could Double the Mine's Output — and the Stakes. On June 9, shareholders vote on whether to proceed with a Phase 2 expansion that would nearly double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027 , potentially supplying ~40% of global tungsten demand outside China. Approval would commit capital but dramatically change the company's production scale. With $259.9 million in cash and $169.5 million in working capital, management has the financial room to fund the expansion without an immediate stock offering.

  • Washington Is Forcing Buyers Straight to Almonty's Door. Starting January 2027, the U.S. military is barred from using Chinese tungsten in its equipment — a regulatory deadline that converts Almonty's positioning into near-guaranteed demand. Tungsten prices hit record highs above $3,200 per metric ton unit in early May , and management says Sangdong would remain profitable even if prices crashed to $350, thanks to ore grades roughly three times the global average.

  • Analyst Targets Suggest Room to Run, but Execution Risk Remains. D.A. Davidson holds a $25 price target, Alliance Global sets $26.25, and Bank of America sees fair value at $23.

Institutional holders jumped more than 50% last quarter to 107 funds. The risk: Sangdong has yet to prove it can hit steady-state commercial output — every mine ramp-up carries the chance of delays that market prices rarely forgive.