Shares of Kioxia Holdings stumbled into the end of June, sliding to ¥88,450 after losing roughly 15% from the all-time high of ¥112,700 hit on June 22, as investors cashed in gains and a viral headline about rank-and-file wealth triggered fresh debate over how far the stock has already run.
A Castoff Chip Unit Became Japan's Most Valuable Company — in 18 Months
Kioxia's stock has skyrocketed nearly 70-fold from its December 2024 IPO price of ¥1,455, pushing its market capitalization above ¥50 trillion and overtaking Toyota as Japan's most valuable listed company.
Over the past year alone, the stock has delivered a 4,156% return, with a 52-week range of ¥2,210 to ¥112,700. That kind of run invites profit-taking at any excuse — and this week delivered two: a 11.2% single-day plunge on June 26 after a prior surge, followed by continued selling into Monday.
The "600 Millionaires" Story Signals a Valuation Reality Check
After Bain Capital acquired the former Toshiba memory unit in 2018, it granted stock options to roughly 600 employees — including section and department managers — at exercise prices of just ¥1,667 to ¥2,600 per share.
At the year's high, those 7 million option shares were worth approximately ¥790 billion, yielding paper gains of over ¥1 billion (~$6.5 million) per person. The headline is feel-good, but for shareholders it underscores how stretched the valuation has become — every employee windfall is a reminder that the easy money may already be made.
The Fundamentals Are Real — Production Is Sold Out Through 2027
Kioxia posted fiscal 2025 revenue of roughly $14.8 billion (up 30%) and operating profit of about $5 billion (up 67%), both consecutive record highs.
Its 2026 NAND production is already "sold out," with tightness expected to last into 2027.
Analysts project operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 could reach ¥7.39 trillion — an eightfold increase. Those aren't speculative numbers; they're backed by multi-year contracts with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
The Risk: Chinese Rivals and Gravity
Aggressive capacity buildout by Chinese NAND manufacturers could contribute to oversupply, eroding prices and industry profitability.
Analysts' average 12-month target is ¥110,594, but estimates range wildly from ¥40,000 to ¥200,000 — 14 say buy, one says sell. At ¥88,450, the stock trades below its consensus target, suggesting Wall Street still sees upside. But the widening range signals deep uncertainty about whether AI-driven NAND demand can sustain a valuation that has no historical precedent for a memory chipmaker.